The MOCOS Wroclaw Group is the originator of the MOCOS International research project. The team analyses risk, makes forecasts for the coming days and weeks and recommendations how to combat COVID-19.
The MOCOS Group was founded by Professor Tyll Krüger (Wroclaw University of Technology) specialising in mathematical modelling in medicine and biology on 12th February. The team consists of scientists from the Wroclaw University of Technology, the University of Wroclaw and the Medical University in Wroclaw and experts from Nokia Wroclaw, EY GDS Poland and MicroscopeIT. The group is supported by the Wroclaw City Office.
The scientists have created an advanced mathematical model simulating human behaviours. The model allows us to estimate the current spreading rate of the virus and, consequently, the stage of development of the pandemic. It also helps us determine to what extent interpersonal contacts have been reduced and whether this level is sufficient to defeat COVID-19.
Main recommendations from the MOCOS Group
- Continued limitation of social contacts
- More effective and faster search of the contact history of infected persons than currently
- Increase of the virus testing and detection rate level in persons with mild symptoms
Although the analysis for Lower Silesia shows a slowdown in epidemic development, research shows that the removal of social contact restrictions may increase the number of infections again.
MOCOS’s recommendations for citizens:
- Stay at home and minimise your outdoor contacts, irrespective of the level of centrally imposed restrictions.
- If you have a fever or dry cough:
- submit to quarantine voluntarily
- inform your relatives and friends
- Comply with the hygiene recommendations of the Chief Sanitary Inspectorate
MOCOS’s recommendations for public administration
- Improvement of procedures allowing for the effective and fast search of infected persons’ contacts (from the moment when infection is suspected).
- Testing of persons with mild symptoms, irrespective of their history of contacts with infected persons.
- Benefits from the introduction of recommendations of the MOCOS Group
The epidemic will end when new infections will amount exactly to zero for two weeks. It depends on us how long this will last. ‘The fastest and cheapest method of fighting the epidemic is the simultaneous combination of three strategies: strict restriction of contacts, widely available tests and effective tracking of contacts,’ explains Professor Tyll Krüger, the originator of the MOCOS Group.
The report and information about authors is available at: www.mocos.pl
