The most important information (click to go)
Looking at the summary of the last 25 years since 2000, compiled by Oxford Economics analysts, it is clear that the cities of Central and Eastern Europe have dominated economic growth across the entire continent during this period. Poland’s major cities accounted for a significant proportion of the fastest-growing cities in Europe, outperforming giants such as London, Amsterdam and Madrid.
This success was underpinned by a number of key trends: the growing dominance of the services sector in metropolitan economies, a shift in production towards higher value-added activities, integration into key EU-wide supply chains, and a significant increase in foreign direct investment (FDI).
Polish cities have overtaken most of Europe
Since the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, Poland’s largest cities have grown by an average of 4.0% per year. At that time, the average for European cities was just 2.1%. Kraków performed best in this respect, growing by 4.2% during the period in question. Warsaw was just behind it, followed by Gdańsk and Wroclaw. Poznań and Łódź brought up the rear among Poland’s major cities.
Polish regions will outperform those in Western Europe between 2026 and 2030
It should be noted, however, that the aforementioned five Polish cities performed better than most of those in Western Europe. The only exception is Dublin, which tops the ranking compiled by Oxford Economics with a score of over 5%. However, among the metropolitan areas in Central and Eastern Europe, only Sofia and Bucharest performed better than Polish cities.
Great prospects for the rest of the decade
Equally importantly, Oxford Economics estimates that our urban centres will continue to grow at a strong pace. However, the leading position among Polish major cities is expected to change – in the medium term, according to analysts, Warsaw will take the lead thanks to its larger services sector. Nevertheless, according to Oxford Economics, Wroclaw and Gdańsk are expected to keep pace with the capital over the next five years.
According to the consultancy firm’s calculations, Wroclaw will be among the five Polish cities (alongside Warsaw, Kraków, Gdańsk and Poznań) that will achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of over 3 per cent between 2026 and 2030.
In the long term – by 2050 – Warsaw should overtake Lyon, Vienna and Helsinki in terms of economy size.
From the automotive industry to a battery factory and a new technology park
Oxford Economics also highlights the reasons behind such rapid growth in Poland’s five main urban centres. Industry was one of the key factors, though not the only one.
The manufacturing sector laid the foundations for strong growth, but it was the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, the financial sector and business services that drove productivity growth and propelled the economies of Poland’s major cities to the top of European rankings.
‘Central Europe has benefited from the fact that companies have diversified their supply chains and moved production closer to their suppliers (nearshoring), prioritising resilience over costs. This has enabled European manufacturers to reduce order delivery times and reduce geopolitical risk, while benefiting from a competitive and highly skilled workforce in Poland, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics.
Poland’s membership of the EU certainly played a major role in this, as it accelerated our country’s progress in the value chain. Manufacturing has shifted its focus from the export of raw materials to the production of intermediate goods (e.g. automotive parts and specialised machinery). Polish industry will continue to evolve towards more specialised products with higher profit margins.
A very good example of this is seizing the opportunity resulting from the global transition to clean energy and the decarbonisation of transport. This was connected with an increase in demand for electric vehicles, as well as investment in batteries and the components used in their manufacture. Wroclaw particularly gained from this – the Wroclaw district is home to Europe’s largest lithium-ion battery factory operated by the South Korean company LG Energy Solution.
And this is, after all, not the last major investment to be built near the capital of Lower Silesia. The Taiwanese group TEEMA intends to build a Technology Park near Wroclaw – in Miękinia.
It will be one of the largest new technology centres in Europe.
